The projectile does not hit 2 times in one place — and from the point of view of the theory of probability?

There is the soldier's belief that the projectile does not hit 2 times in the same place, so the safest place under the shelling was considered to be a new crater.

I think it all greatly depends on the density of the fire... How this is explained from the point of view of the theory of probability?

Have you met this example in the literature? Something to read on terbaru in this application form?
October 3rd 19 at 04:05
11 answers
October 3rd 19 at 04:07
Hiding in the funnel is possible because the fragments of the main damaging factors.
October 3rd 19 at 04:09
The whole theory is to look for the words "scattering ellipse", but in brief here.
October 3rd 19 at 04:11
Probability theory studies the probabilistic model, so in Your case it all depends on the model chosen. If the enemy methodically shoots to the same point, then the statement is obviously wrong. If there are multiple points with non-zero probability in them, it is obvious that if we take p for the probability of hitting a certain chosen point, the probability to hit it twice in a row would be p2 < p.
However, this "a priori" probability. I.e. it is assumed that the expected events (two consecutive shots) hasn't happened yet. If we already know that the shell got to a certain point, it is irrelevant to the entry point of the next projectile. There is another important feature of the model — independence of events. Again, if the firing is conducted so that any one point was not covered twice, then really, you can hide in the funnel :-)
Explain, pretending to be cap

0 < p < 1
Therefore, p2 < p - maximillia.Ho commented on October 3rd 19 at 04:14
October 3rd 19 at 04:13
Reading this article habrahabr.ru/post/163621/?
Thank you. This is what you need! - maximillia.Ho commented on October 3rd 19 at 04:16
October 3rd 19 at 04:15
I think the exclude is not necessary, but the probability is clearly reduced due to various factors
October 3rd 19 at 04:17
Here, the random number generator is the atmosphere(the shape and weight of the projectile can significantly reduce the influence of the atmosphere), the temperature of the barrel, the amount of explosives, as explosive, as the reaction of the explosion is developing, I don't know, but I assume that this too can affect accuracy, not to perfection the perfect aerodynamics of the projectile(the impact may be, but the effect is extremely small because of the large weight and specially designed shape), barrel wear(well, wear well).

The probability of getting 1 cannon in the same place, about the same as to throw the dice and to throw the same number that fell before. Only the faces of the cube must be correspondingly greater. And the sector of contact must be uniform( in the center smaller at the edges more).

Question look like this: If you roll the dice and have dropped 6. What is the probability that the next will be 6?
The answer, takayazhe exactly like last time. BUT something that depends on the temperature of the barrel.

As for art upstrea when plotnom the fire, mostly the shells are flying in little
October 3rd 19 at 04:19
Wikipedia about Jutland battle:

The British used the tactics of hunting for shots, directing the cruiser directly to the crash of enemy shot. Saying that the shell twice in one funnel does not fall, turns out to be true, and the cruiser has not received serious damage, although were forced to walk in zigzags.
I can assume that this sachak: the British assumed/knew the guidance system and standard operations when zeroing.
That is not random never. ;-) - maximillia.Ho commented on October 3rd 19 at 04:22
October 3rd 19 at 04:21
As is mentioned above, but I would like to highlight separately: a belief about the funnel, how about lightning not hitting the same place twice — the special cases of "mistake player" (you can name to Google for a more complete description). Of course, it is "in a spherical case in vacuum", in practice each case is influenced by hundreds of additional factors.
October 3rd 19 at 04:23
From the point of view of the theory of probability is not explained in any way because of his gun not a random number generator.
Here only even if you do not change the gun, then the shells will be distributed approximately Gaussian → still, the probability that the next shell will fall into the same funnel, it is high!

And if the sight is to change, do not care: the new shell anywhere can get. - maximillia.Ho commented on October 3rd 19 at 04:26
Depending on how to change. If fired one sector and stop, went further in a row to fire, it seems, for the second time in the same funnel will not fly. - Jessie.Luettg commented on October 3rd 19 at 04:29
October 3rd 19 at 04:25
here 50 on 50 — or you can go or not. so no matter where to hide.
October 3rd 19 at 04:27
Strictly speaking, for mortar attack that's not fair. Likely mines in the circle of small radius with no adjustment guidance - more than 70%.

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